US Quantum Computing Market - Forecasts From 2025 To 2030

Description

US Quantum Computing Market is anticipated to expand at a high CAGR over the forecast period.

US Quantum Computing Market Key Highlights

• Public Sector Investment Catalyses Commercial Demand: The National Quantum Initiative (NQI) Act and subsequent multi-billion dollar funding allocations from the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Science Foundation (NSF) directly create a primary procurement market, while also de-risking technology for private sector adoption through the establishment of National Quantum Information Science Research Centres.
• Cryptography Transition Drives Immediate Software & Service Demand: Regulatory action by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to standardise Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) has imposed an immediate, non-negotiable compliance imperative on federal agencies and critical infrastructure, accelerating demand for quantum-safe software and migration services.
• Hardware Commercialisation Advances with Utility-Scale Systems: The market is transitioning from purely research-grade systems to utility-scale deployments, exemplified by IBM's installation of an IBM Quantum System One on a university campus in April 2024, signalling a critical move toward broader physical accessibility and the training of a commercial workforce.
• Cloud-Based Model Dominates Early Adoption: The high capital expenditure and specialised infrastructure required for on-premises hardware mean that Cloud-Based Quantum Computing (QCaaS) remains the key access point for the industry, allowing enterprises in finance and pharmaceuticals to explore applications such as financial modelling and drug design and development without significant upfront investment.

The US Quantum Computing Market currently operates at the intersection of transformative scientific breakthrough and strategic national interest, positioning the country as a global leader in both foundational research and early commercialisation efforts. This market is fundamentally an innovation-driven ecosystem where public sector investment functions as the primary catalyst for private sector entry. The focus has decisively shifted from demonstrating qubit coherence to building utility-scale systems and, critically, developing the full-stack quantum software necessary for realising quantum advantage in specialised industrial applications. The market structure, defined by a critical reliance on highly specialised hardware and a corresponding need for accessible deployment models like Cloud-Based services, dictates that demand formation is occurring first in computationally intensive verticals such as finance, logistics, and chemistry. The persistent gap in highly-skilled human capital and the complexity of quantum error correction remain the principal constraints that the entire ecosystem must address to transition from a research market to a sustainable commercial industry.

US Quantum Computing Market Analysis

Growth Drivers

Governmental mandates and investment are the primary forces propelling demand. The initial and renewed funding under the National Quantum Initiative Act directly accelerates hardware and software development within national labs, while the US Department of Energy's commitment of $625 million to its five National Quantum Information Science Research Centres creates dedicated platforms for public-private collaboration. This environment de-risks quantum exploration for enterprises, directly increasing the demand for Cloud-Based quantum access and specialised algorithm Software and Service offerings. Simultaneously, the accelerating threat of a quantum computer breaking current public-key cryptography, often referred to as the "harvest now, decrypt later" risk, creates an urgent, compliance-driven demand signal for Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) solutions in the Cybersecurity & Cryptography segment, forcing regulated industries to procure solutions now rather than waiting for full quantum commercialisation.

Challenges and Opportunities

High error rates and the inherent instability of physical qubits constitute a persistent technical challenge, hindering the development of reliable, large-scale systems required for true quantum advantage, which consequently dampens demand for expensive, on-premises Hardware. This constraint, however, simultaneously creates a profound opportunity in the Software and Service segment, specifically for companies focusing on sophisticated quantum error correction codes and compilation software, as these solutions directly mitigate the hardware's present limitations and increase the value proposition of existing quantum systems. The shortage of a proficient quantum-skilled workforce (including engineers, software developers, and cryptographers) is a crucial operational constraint. This deficit drives heightened demand for educational partnerships, joint venture programs between industry and academia, and Quantum Computing as a Service (QCaaS) platforms that lower the entry barrier by abstracting the complex physics.

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Raw Material and Pricing Analysis

The US Quantum Computing Market includes Hardware components, necessitating an analysis of its specialised material and pricing dynamics. Quantum processors, particularly those based on superconducting circuits, require highly specialised materials such as high-purity niobium for superconducting wires and ultra-cold refrigeration systems relying on dilution refrigerators that use rare isotopes of Helium-3 and Helium-4. The geopolitical complexity and finite supply of Helium-3 create an inelastic supply condition, increasing the cost and lead time of cryogenic infrastructure, which in turn elevates the total cost of ownership (TCO) for an On-Premises quantum system. This high cost directly channels enterprise demand away from outright hardware purchase and toward the utility-based, operational expenditure Cloud-Based model, where the provider bears the material and infrastructure pricing volatility.

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Supply Chain Analysis

The global quantum supply chain is nascent, concentrated, and exhibits distinct choke points. The production of key components, such as low-noise microwave electronics and specialised vacuum equipment necessary for superconducting or ion-trap systems, is often dependent on a limited number of highly specialised firms, frequently outside the United States. This dependency poses a strategic vulnerability. The complexity of the quantum hardware architecture requires an intricate vertical integration of components, from custom-engineered cryogenic systems and ultra-stable lasers to the quantum chip itself. This complexity, coupled with geopolitical efforts to secure domestic supply chains, elevates logistical risks and operational costs, pushing US-based hardware manufacturers to pursue localised fabrication for critical components like quantum chip packaging in coordination with domestic semiconductor partners.

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Government Regulations

Federal regulatory action is a key force in the quantum market, primarily through initiatives designed to stimulate growth and secure national systems against future quantum threats.

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In-Depth Segment Analysis

By Application: Drug Design & Development

The Drug Design & Development application segment constitutes a major near-term demand driver for quantum computing, as the core problem—simulating molecular interactions and chemical reactions—is fundamentally quantum mechanical. Classical high-performance computing (HPC) systems are constrained by the exponential scaling problem when modeling large molecules, limiting them to approximations. Quantum algorithms like the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) promise to overcome this limitation by providing more accurate ground-state energy calculations for complex chemical systems. This capability generates direct demand for quantum systems and, more immediately, for Computational Chemistry and artificial intelligence and machine learning quantum software that can accelerate material discovery, catalyst design, and molecular simulation, leading to a substantial competitive advantage in reducing the time and cost associated with preclinical drug research. Pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies are therefore investing in Cloud-Based access to systems for exploratory work to gain early competence.

By Industry Vertical: Financial Services (BFSI)

The BFSI vertical represents one of the most proactive early-adopting segments, driving demand through its need for enhanced portfolio optimization and complex risk modelling. Financial institutions frequently tackle NP-hard problems, such as optimal arbitrage strategy, fraud detection across massive datasets, and complex derivative pricing, where small improvements in computational speed or accuracy yield significant monetary returns. Quantum annealing and gate-based optimisation algorithms offer the potential to solve these problems exponentially faster than classical methods. This generates intense demand for Software and Service offerings that integrate quantum computation for risk analysis and Financial Modelling, specifically in the area of Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning for predictive asset pricing. Critically, the need to prepare for quantum cryptographic threats also drives significant parallel demand for quantum-safe cybersecurity and key distribution solutions within the BFSI sector.

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Competitive Environment and Analysis

The competitive landscape is characterised by a high barrier to entry, a mix of established technology giants leveraging existing cloud infrastructure, and highly specialised pure-play quantum startups focused on proprietary hardware architectures. The competition centres not just on the number of physical qubits but, more importantly, on the quality of those qubits—specifically fidelity, connectivity, and error rates—as well as the maturity of the full-stack software development environment.

IBM

IBM is a dominant force, leveraging its decades of experience in high-performance computing and its existing massive cloud ecosystem, IBM Cloud. The company’s strategy centers on a full-stack approach, providing its proprietary Qiskit software development kit to cultivate a large developer community and offering access to its family of utility-scale quantum systems (e.g., Osprey, Heron) via the cloud. IBM's strategic positioning is predicated on becoming the foundational utility provider, making quantum computing accessible to enterprises globally through a robust, cloud-based platform. Their key products, like the IBM Quantum System One, are central to their strategy of physical deployment at client and partner sites to accelerate research and workforce development.

Quantinuum

Quantinuum (a merger of Honeywell Quantum Solutions and Cambridge Quantum Computing) focuses on ion-trap quantum computing, which historically offers higher qubit fidelity, making it a powerful contender. Their value proposition is built on high-performance hardware, such as the H-Series systems, paired with sophisticated software solutions, including their InQuanto computational chemistry platform and Lambeq for quantum natural language processing. Their strategic positioning emphasises developing Quantum Computational Advantage in specific applications, particularly in computational chemistry and logistics, directly translating to high-value services for enterprise clients in the Drug Design & Development and Logistics Optimisation segments.

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Recent Market Developments

The following developments, sourced directly from company newsrooms, highlight the market's progression toward utility-scale deployment and expanded application access.

• April 2024: Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) and IBM unveiled the world's first IBM Quantum System One on a university campus in Troy, New York. This installation, secured through an enduring partnership, expands RPI's educational and research capacity, serving the dual purpose of accelerating regional research and directly addressing the critical US workforce development gap for the quantum ecosystem.
• November 2025: Quantinuum announced the commercial launch of its new Helios general-purpose quantum computer. This new system is designed to enable Generative Quantum AI (GenQAI) by leveraging quantum-generated data, explicitly targeting enterprise applications in finance, drug discovery, and advanced materials and positioning the company at the forefront of the quantum-AI convergence.
• May 2024: IBM announced the evolution and expansion of Qiskit, its globally adopted quantum software, refining it as a comprehensive quantum software stack focused on performance and stability. This capacity addition aims to fully harness the power of utility-scale quantum hardware, enabling users to run increasingly more complex quantum circuits in the search for quantum advantage.

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US Quantum Computing Market Segmentation

• By Component
  • Hardware
  • Software and Service
• By Deployment
  • On-Premises
  • Cloud-Based
• By Application
  • Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning
  • Computational Chemistry
  • Drug Design & Development
  • Cybersecurity & Cryptography
  • Financial Modelling
  • Logistics Optimisation
  • Others
• By Industry Vertical
  • BFSI
  • Automotive
  • Manufacturing
  • Healthcare
  • IT & Telecom
  • Energy & Power
  • Others

Table Of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. MARKET SNAPSHOT

2.1. Market Overview

2.2. Market Definition

2.3. Scope of the Study

2.4. Market Segmentation

3. BUSINESS LANDSCAPE

3.1. Market Drivers

3.2. Market Restraints

3.3. Market Opportunities

3.4. Porter's Five Forces Analysis

3.5. Industry Value Chain Analysis

3.6. Policies and Regulations

3.7. Strategic Recommendations

4. TECHNOLOGICAL OUTLOOK

5. US QUANTUM COMPUTING MARKET BY COMPONENT

5.1. Introduction

5.2. Hardware

5.3. Software and Service

6. US QUANTUM COMPUTING MARKET BY DEPLOYMENT

6.1. Introduction

6.2. On-Premises

6.3. Cloud-Based

7. US QUANTUM COMPUTING MARKET BY APPLICATION

7.1. Introduction

7.2. Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

7.3. Computational Chemistry

7.4. Drug Design & Development

7.5. Cybersecurity & Cryptography

7.6. Financial Modelling

7.7. Logistics Optimisation

7.8. Others

8. US QUANTUM COMPUTING MARKET BY INDUSTRY VERTICAL

8.1. Introduction

8.2. BFSI

8.3. Automotive

8.4. Manufacturing

8.5. Healthcare

8.6. IT & Telecom

8.7. Energy & Power

8.8. Others

9. COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT AND ANALYSIS

9.1. Major Players and Strategy Analysis

9.2. Market Share Analysis

9.3. Mergers, Acquisitions, Agreements, and Collaborations

9.4. Competitive Dashboard

10. COMPANY PROFILES

10.1. IBM

10.2. Google Quantum AI

10.3. Microsoft

10.4. Amazon Web Services (AWS)

10.5. Rigetti Computing

10.6. IonQ

10.7. PsiQuantum

10.8. Quantinuum

10.9. Infleqtion (ColdQuanta)

10.10. Quantum Circuits Inc.

11. APPENDIX

11.1. Currency

11.2. Assumptions

11.3. Base and Forecast Years Timeline

11.4. Key benefits for the stakeholders

11.5. Research Methodology

11.6. Abbreviations

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF TABLES

Companies Profiled

IBM

Google Quantum AI

Microsoft

Amazon Web Services (AWS)

Rigetti Computing

IonQ

PsiQuantum

Quantinuum

Infleqtion (ColdQuanta)

Quantum Circuits Inc.

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