China almond market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.04% to reach US$1,063.914 million by 2025, from US$748.322 million in 2019. China’s almond production (shelled-basis) is forecast at 45,000 MT in MY 2019/20 (August-July), which is a slight increase from the previous year. The favorable growing conditions in the Xinjiang region, particularly in Shache County that accounts for more than 95 % of the country’s entire almond production is one of the main reasons for the aforesaid. Currently, the almond acreage which is reportedly estimated at around 63,000 hectares, remains stable. Further, due to the lack of proper crop management and agricultural inputsChina’s almond yield is reportedly very low. Besides, Xinjiang almond varieties are reportedly unable to compete with the imported varieties such as Carmel, Independence, Monterey, and Nonpareil. The primary markets for almonds produced in Shache County are restricted within the province and are not exported outside the province.
However, despite a rapidly developing a treen nut industry China is expected to continue to rely on imported almonds among others in the future as well.It is estimated that the higher tariffs on nuts originating from the USA will compel Chinese importers to look for other sources of nuts as well. China’s almond imports were forecasted to decrease in MY 2019/20 (August-July), as the Chinese government imposed another 10-percent tariff on U.S. nuts, effective September 1, 2019. Although Chinese importers are searching for substitute suppliers like Australia, no single nation can provide enough almonds to accommodate this booming market despite the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, China’s total almond imports increased during MY 2018/19, as importers tried every possible means to fulfill their signed contracts. The demand for almonds is expected to be driven by China’s snack food market that has reportedly integrated innovative means of production. Further snacking preferences have moved to more upscale offerings. For instance, melon seeds and peanuts that are produced locally are being replaced by imported nuts, such as almonds among others. The other factors like presentation and packaging that have changed from in-shell nut to shelled nuts; single variety nut packages to mixed nuts packages; rough processed to multiple processed (including chocolate and yogurt coated 7 Unclassified nuts); simple flavor to complex flavor with dried fruits; from large packages to small/single-serving packages. Also, some brands develop products with specific nut combinations to target niche markets are expected to augment the china almond market growth. Besides the expanding bakery industry of the country is known to use U.S. almonds, among others as ingredients in a variety of products [Source: USDA]. Another factor to reinforce the growth of this market is the availability of plant-based snack options which is gaining momentum in the Chinese market.