Ground Transportation Fuel Market - Forecasts from 2026 to 2031

The Ground Transportation Fuel market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 4.1%, reaching USD 1,134.7 billion in 2031 from USD 892.1 billion in 2026.

The ground transportation fuel market constitutes an essential segment of the global energy sector, providing fuels for road-based transportation, including passenger cars, commercial vehicles, buses, and logistics fleets. A significant part of the market's driving factors can be attributed to persistent demand for mobility, ongoing urban infrastructure development, and worldwide freight and logistics growth.

One of the main factors that influences the ground transportation fuel market is the impact of government regulations, which encourage the use of cleaner fuels, better fuel quality, and lower vehicle emissions. Case in point, the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards in the U.S. and the Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) in the EU require increased fuel efficiency and the use of renewable fuels in transportation. Similarly, in India, programs such as the Bharat Stage VI (BS?VI) Emission Standards and the National Policy on Biofuels encourage the use of low-sulfur fuels and ethanol blending to reduce pollution and fossil fuel dependence, thereby facilitating the gradual shift to cleaner energy sources for ground transportation.

The escalating geopolitical issues regarding Iran, Israel, and the US may affect the ground transportation fuel market significantly, especially if geopolitical issues cause closure or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is one of the world's crucial oil transit chokepoints, and a large share of global crude oil and refined petroleum products is transported through it. The Strait is a significant channel for oil transportation, and there are almost no alternative routes to carry oil out of the strait if it is closed. On average, oil flow through the Strait in 2024 was 20.3 million barrels per day (b/d), which is roughly the same as 20% of the world's total petroleum liquids consumption. During the first quarter of 2025, the total volume of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz was 20.1 million barrels per day (b/d).

Ground Transportation Fuel Market Key Highlights

MARKET DYNAMICS

Market Drivers

Rising Global Vehicle Ownership

The increase in international vehicle ownership has significantly contributed to the expansion of the ground transportation fuel market. The rising population, better living standards, and higher middle-class income levels, especially in developing economies, are driving more people to own personal vehicles such as cars, motorcycles, and SUVs.

Along with passenger vehicles, the number of commercial vehicles has been increasing as well due to growth in economic activities and the logistics and e-commerce sectors. To meet the higher demand for goods distribution and passenger mobility, delivery vans, freight trucks, and public transportation fleets are being increased. The???????? Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce has announced that the estimate of the U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the third quarter of 2025 was $310.3 billion after the seasonal adjustment, but no price adjustment, which is 1.9 percent (±0.4%) higher than the second quarter of 2025.

Even though electric vehicle adoption is on the rise, the global vehicle fleet is still largely made up of internal combustion engine vehicles, which will continue to be common in many developing markets due to reasons such as affordability, fuel availability, and existing infrastructure. In 2025, new EU car registrations increased by 1.8% compared to the same period last year. 5.8% increase was seen in December 2025. Therefore, the increase in the global vehicle population remains a key factor in the continued demand for ground transportation fuels in both developed and emerging economies.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• 2025: Shell Offshore Inc., a subsidiary of Shell plc, has taken a final investment decision (FID) on a waterflood project at its Kaikias field in the US Gulf of America.

• 2025: Shell U.K. Limited, a subsidiary of Shell plc have completed a deal to combine its UK offshore oil and gas operations to form a new company, Adura.

• 2025: Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo), a subsidiary of Shell plc, together with Sunlink Energies and Resources Limited, have taken a final investment decision (FID) on the HI gas project offshore Nigeria.

MARKET SEGMENTATION

By Vehicle Type: Light-vehicles

The ground transportation fuel market by vehicle type is segmented into light vehicles and heavy vehicles. Light vehicles are responsible for most of the fuel consumed by the ground transportation fuel market, due to personal use for transport and commuting in urban areas. Examples of vehicles in the light-duty vehicle category include cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, and commercial vans. According to government data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), road transport is responsible for the vast majority of the energy consumed for transport, with most of the consumption being made up by light-duty vehicles, as these vehicles make up a large percentage of the total vehicle population and travel a significant number of miles each year.

The fuel in light-duty vehicles continues to be predominantly gasoline. Although there is an increasing number of alternative fuel sources, the majority of the existing fleet is powered by petroleum (gasoline), which continues to generate a substantial amount of gasoline demand for the ground transportation fuel market. The segment is undergoing a gradual change due to the increasing introduction of electric or hybrid vehicles in recent years. According to the EIA's "Today in Energy" report (2026), it is expected that 22% of light-duty vehicles sold in 2025 will be hybrids, electric, or plug-in hybrid vehicles, showing a trend towards lower fuel-consuming vehicles.

In addition to decreasing gasoline consumption due to technological improvements and the rising penetration of electric-powered vehicles, the existing fleet will continue to consume significant amounts of gasoline for many years. The continued growth in vehicle travel will ensure that light-duty vehicles remain an important part of the ground transportation fuel market in the near future.

The figure illustrates the increasing share of hybrid, battery-electric, and plug-in hybrid vehicles in total light-duty vehicle sales in the United States, rising from 20% in 2024 to 22% in 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The upward trend highlights the gradual transition toward electrified mobility within the light vehicle segment. For the ground transportation fuel market, this shift is important because it indicates a gradual reduction in gasoline demand growth from passenger vehicles over time. However, internal combustion engine vehicles still dominate the overall fleet, meaning petroleum fuels continue to hold a significant share of transportation energy consumption. The data helps illustrate the pace at which alternative powertrains are entering the market and their potential influence on future fuel demand patterns in the light-duty vehicle segment.

REGIONAL ANALYSIS

North America: the US

The U.S. fuel market for ground transportation will be dominated by petroleum-based fuels (particularly motor gasoline and diesel), which make up the majority of the transportation energy supply throughout America's passenger vehicle fleets, freight trucks and buses on the road. According to the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook 2025, average U.S. consumption of motor gasoline during calendar year 2025 (averaged over 12 months) is expected to be approximately 8.9 million barrels per day, therefore making it by far the largest fuel used for road transportation in the United States. The continued high demand for gasoline can be attributed to the number of light-duty vehicles in operation throughout the U.S. and an ongoing high level of travel on the roads.

Exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) continue to be the leading growth drivers in domestic production of natural gas in the US. The US Energy Information Administration’s September 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook anticipates US LNG exports to increase by 36%, or approximately 4.3 billion cubic feet a day (Bcf/d) from 2024-2026. The anticipated increase of LNG exports greatly exceeds the forecast increase in US domestic natural gas consumption, which is expected to grow only 1.0 Bcf/d from 2024 to 2026. Overall, US domestic natural gas consumption is forecast to average nearly 91.4 Bcf/d in 2026, with a small increase of approximately 1% from 2024 levels. The electric power sector is the largest consumer of domestic natural gas, representing an estimated 40% of total US domestic natural gas consumption in 2024 and likely will maintain that percentage through 2026.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Although the U.S. fuel market for ground transportation in 2025 will remain heavily reliant on gasoline and diesel, conventional transportation fuels, renewable fuels will comprise a continuing small but growing share of this marketplace.

The figure illustrates the forecast for petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption in the United States, measured in million barrels per day. Consumption is projected to reach 20.49 million barrels per day in 2025 and 20.61 million barrels per day in 2026, indicating stable demand for petroleum-based fuels across key sectors. Petroleum and liquid fuels remain essential for transportation activities, particularly for gasoline and diesel used in passenger vehicles, freight trucks, and commercial transportation. The steady consumption levels reflect sustained fuel demand driven by road mobility and logistics operations. These trends highlight the continued importance of petroleum-derived fuels in supporting the United States transportation fuel market and overall energy demand.

List of Companies

• Exxon Mobil Corporation

• Shell plc

• BP plc

• Chevron Corporation

• TotalEnergies SE

• Aramco

• PetroChina Company Limited

• Valero Energy Corporation

• Occidental Petroleum Corporation

• Reliance Industries Limited

• Indian Oil Corporation Limited

• Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited

• Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited

Shell is a global energy company with a significant presence in the ground transportation fuel market. Operating in over 70 countries, Shell provides high-quality marine fuels, lubricants, and services to support the maritime industry's evolving needs. With a focus on reducing emissions, Shell invests in low-carbon and alternative fuels, such as LNG and biofuels, while maintaining a robust supply chain for conventional fuels.

Their expertise ensures compliance with global regulations, like IMO 2020, and supports the transition to cleaner energy, powering progress for the maritime sector worldwide.