The US avocado market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.57% to reach US$4.775 billion by 2025, from US$3.449 billion in 2019. U.S. per capita consumption of avocados is rapidly rising, for instance In the 2010/11 season per capita consumption was 4 pounds and by 2018/19 it more than doubled to 9.24 pounds (Source: USDA). From the perspective of production capacity as per USDA, previous estimates by the California Avocado Commission (CAC) suggests an increase in statewide avocado production for the season 2019/20 (November-October) which is in the order of 369 million pounds, a growth by 70 % from their estimate of the 2018/19 crop which accounted for 216.6 million pounds. The tendency of this year’s harvest to be greater than the last year’s reportedly low harvest is due to the alternate-bearing nature of the tree. Further, as a result of heavy rains during the last year’s winter season, the trees are healthy which is expected to stimulate production. Moreover, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service has reportedly depicted avocado shipments of January and February 2020 above normal that has been facilitated by large crop and high prices. Also, it is important to note that as per USDA, shipments of Californian avocado amounted to 1.14 million pounds during January and February. Whereas shipments during the same period in 2020 reportedly reached 22.63 million pounds, representing an increase of 1,885.08 % just over a year. California accounts for over 80% of the avocado production in the US. Further, it is important to note that growers in the U.S. wait for fruit quality to reach its peak because avocados can mature on trees for an extended period.
Further, the growing cognizance of plant-based alternatives, heathy diet, among others is expected to propel the US avocado market to unprecedented heights during the forecast period. A recent example is that of the introduction of Beyond Tacos at all Del Taco locations throughout the US as reported in April 2019 offering the same amount of protein their seasoned beef tacos. Beyond Avocado Taco (vegan) which encompasses Del Taco seasoned Beyond Meat plant-based crumbles, hand-sliced avocado among others is one of the two initial offerings of Beyond Meat menu items. Another example is the launch of the plant-based butter alternative by US-based Country Crock during September 2019. The product reportedly constitutes plant-based oils derived from avocados, among other sources. Further, it is also gluten-free and kosher-certified, and being plant-based by the Plant-Based Foods Association (PBFA) it has been made suitable for vegan diets. On the other hand, the demand for avocados by consumers in the U.S. has been responded with the reported opening of the world’s first casual restaurant focused entirely on avocados called AvoEatery as a result of a partnership between Avocados From Mexico and TRINITY GROVES during February 2019 in Dallas.